What they’re saying, part 2: Export ban is the wrong move for U.S. energy security

Previously, we shared perspectives from experts, analysts, reporters and even some current (and former) administration officials on why an export ban on U.S. crude oil or American-made diesel, gasoline and refined products would be a grave mistake. Instead of cutting prices for consumers, it would result in less U.S. fuel production, tighter supplies, greater energy security risks and higher prices.

Here are even more perspectives on why an export ban is the wrong move for U.S. energy security:

“Amid record-high U.S. diesel prices, the proximate cause of which is the war in the Middle East, some policymakers are considering an intervention to block exports of the fuel. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, from the heavily rural state of South Dakota, says he is “open to exploring” such an export ban. The idea is that it would reduce domestic prices by cutting off international demand. In truth, basic market mechanics would ensure that the intervention backfires.”

– John Puri, National Review, 9/17/26

“Some have proposed extending export restrictions to refined products such as gasoline and diesel to insulate U.S. prices from global markets. But doing so would likely exacerbate the problem. In the short term, companies might store excess fuel in anticipation of policy reversal. Over time, refiners would be forced to cut crude runs sharply if they could not access export markets for surplus production. Given the scale of U.S. refining capacity relative to domestic demand, such constraints would undermine refinery economics, reduce supply and ultimately push prices higher.”

 – Jason Bordoff and Neelesh Nerurkar, Why Restricting U.S. Oil Exports Would Backfire, 3/18/26

“‘We continue to view the possibility of an export ban as both detrimental to the U.S. refining complex and unlikely to provide the intended price relief,’ [Theresa] Chen wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. Chen outlined one major problem: keeping diesel inside the country does not guarantee it can reach gas pumps. Chen added that with surplus diesel backing up, Gulf Coast refiners would likely have to reduce processing rates. Those cuts could spread to the Midwest as displaced Gulf Coast barrels pressure regional supply balances.”

– Theresa Chen of Barclays, reported in Zero Hedge, 9/16/26

“This is the central flaw in the export ban argument. It treats "keeping oil at home" as if barrels automatically become cheaper gasoline at the corner station. They don't… The United States did not become an energy superpower by hoarding barrels. It became an energy superpower by allowing American producers to compete.”

– Dan Eberhart, An Oil Export Ban Would Reverse America’s Energy Dominance, 6/12/26

“But eventually, U.S. refineries are likely to account for the drop in demand by curtailing the amount of crude they process daily to make diesel and other fuels, such as gasoline and jet fuel, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston… ‘Shortages would develop in those product categories, and I would expect higher prices at the pump,’ Lipow said.”

– Andy Lipow, quoted in WSJ, 9/17/26

“I think that open trade and open exports certainly have to continue…That’s not going to help, putting a ban on exports. It’ll just jack the price up further.”

– Harold Hamm, quoted in The Wall Street Journal, 9/17/26

“A ban on diesel exports won’t bring down pump prices. It will disrupt supply chains and hurt American producers. Diesel is a global commodity, and restricting American exports won’t insulate us from global market dynamics.”

 – Jason Isaac, founder and CEO, American Energy Institute, 9/16/26

“The best thing President Trump can do to lower diesel prices is leave the markets alone and double down on ending the wars in Ukraine and Iran. An export ban will do nothing but disrupt markets and ultimately lead to even higher prices."

– Tom Pyle, Institute for Energy Research, 9/16/26

“An export ban on U.S. refined products would likely lead to higher prices for consumers and lower supply. Currently, prices and margins are incentivizing refiners to produce at maximum rates. A ban of exports would likely reduce domestic refinery utilization and hence production of products, reducing global supply and likely causing world prices to rise…"

– National Petroleum Council, Progress and Actions to Increase Supply and Improve Resilience, 12/2022